ICO
International Coffee Organisation @ICO_Coffee · Research Report
Global coffee arable land to decline by 50% before 2050 — driven by accelerating El Niño cycles and rising temperatures across the coffee belt.
ICO's latest multi-model projections map an unprecedented contraction of suitable coffee-growing areas. From Brazilian highlands to Vietnamese deltas, the geography of coffee is being redrawn — with profound consequences for 125 million livelihoods and the $200B+ global coffee economy.
Aeroponic Coffee Solutions — Napell BIO
−50%
Arable land by 2050
+2.4°C
Temp increase in coffee belt
125M
Livelihoods at risk
−72%
Arabica suitability (worst case)
Dashboard · 01
Projected Decline of Coffee Arable Land
ICO models show a sharp contraction in suitable coffee-growing areas across all major producing regions, with the rate accelerating post-2035 as El Niño frequency intensifies. Three climate scenarios mapped below.
Global Coffee Arable Land Trajectory (2020–2050)
Million hectares suitable for coffee cultivation · ICO composite model
12.4M
Hectares (2020)
8.9M
2035 est.
6.2M
2050 proj.
−6.2M
Net Loss
El Niño Frequency & Intensity
Historical vs. projected · NOAA / ICO
Coffee Belt Temperature Anomaly
Deviation from 1951–1980 baseline · °C